Understanding variance
The best way to understand the basics of poker variance is this: there’s $1 in the pot, your opponent bets all-in for $100. He flips his cards up so you know you’re a 50% favorite to win as well as he is. If you call, you’re risking $100 with the expectation of winning 50 cents in the long run (50% of the $1 pot). If you fold you give up your 50 cent expectation to reduce a $100 variance.
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